The Great Migration To Stronger Hands
Before we get started…if you want to learn more about bitcoin – connect with the Onramp MENA team.
And now, for the weekly roundup…
A few days ago, Bitcoin slipped under $100K for a moment and the timeline panicked. That reaction says more about positioning than fundamentals. Plenty of investors do not hold unlevered spot bitcoin. They carry basis trades, BTC-adjacent equities, financed exposure, or other crypto tokens.
A year of quiet, upward-tilting price action has lulled investors to sleep and trained them to read every dip as a cycle top. That frame keeps missing what changed after the ETFs launched. This is no longer a retail sprint. It is an allocator driven market with deep demand that can absorb supply.
Market structure realities
Post-ETF, a different class of demand is showing up. Brokerage pipes, model portfolios, and creation baskets now feed pension plans, endowments, RIAs, insurers, corporates, and a few sovereign entities. These are mandate-driven allocators building positions, not day-traders chasing candles. Capital builds quietly and keeps buying meaningful dips.
So who is actually selling?
On-chain revived supply in 2025 is about 4.65M BTC at a round 100K mark. The mix matters (per James Check):
~1.90M BTC (~41%) from 6–12 month cohorts. Trader capital and tourists rotating or de-risking.
~844k BTC (~18%) from 1–2 year holders. Many banked 2–3x since 2023–2024 and took it.
~1.91M BTC (~41%) from 2+ year holders. A meaningful slice from 3–5+ years, but far from an “OG whale capitulation.”
Translation: coins are moving from weaker hands to stronger hands, and from earlier retail cohorts to new buyers inside ETFs and brokerage accounts.
Source: James Check (@_Checkmatey_) on X
We are about 20% off the highs. In prior secular advances, resets of 20–60% were normal. We've already seen multiple ~20-30% drawdowns over the past 12 months, most recently a ~30% shakeout in April before printing new highs.
Classic bull-bear labels are losing usefulness in a world of daily ETF flows and new cohorts of demand. The better frame is "chopsolidation" with a slow upward drift while ownership improves.
The bitcoin thesis is only strengthening
Dollar debasement is no longer a fringe topic. The hiking cycle that moved at record speed is giving way to a visible easing shift. QT has an end date. Term premia are being coaxed lower. Funding needs are setting the tone more than month-to-month inflation prints.
Culturally, the narrative moved too. Senior officials praise a stronger gold bid. Extend the logic to bitcoin as the digital counterpart. If the objective is to refinance the state, spread dollar stablecoins worldwide, and let outside money reprice higher, gold and bitcoin are not threats. They are release valves.
The bigger picture (inflation)
Inflation is now lived experience. It shows up in rent, insurance, groceries, and medical bills. The housing market is a policy maze with high prices, scarce supply, and mortgage costs that trap both buyers and sellers. The labor picture is worsening, layoffs are accelerating, real wages are thin, and multiple-jobholding keeps rising. Sentiment feels bleak for a reason.
When daily life gets harder, people reach for simple answers. In parts of the U.S., that has meant a louder turn toward redistribution and state solutions. The impulse is understandable. It does not fix the root cause. The root cause is broken money.
We are not going to vote our way to austerity. There is no durable political will to cut spending or slow monetary inflation. The path of least resistance is more issuance, more programs, and friendlier funding. That is why the answer is opting out at the margin and storing work, time, and energy in sound money.
Gold remains the legacy reserve that institutions understand. Bitcoin is the modern counterpart with fixed supply, verifiable ownership, and global portability. If the system is geared to dilute, the rational response is to hold an asset that cannot be printed.
Zooming out from the latest "dip"
Heavy revived supply hit the market and price held the range. That means real demand is present. The investor base is broadening inside traditional accounts with audit trails, policy documents, and multi-year mandates. Sellers exhaust. New hands are sticky. Education compounds. The short-term chart matters less than the migration of ownership.
Chart Of The Week
"Top buyers capitulating at exactly the wrong time is how bottoms form."
— @FrankAFetter & @_Checkmatey_
Quote Of The Week
"17 years after the white paper, the Bitcoin network is still operational and more resilient than ever. Bitcoin never shuts down. @SenateDems could learn something from that."
— Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent on X
Podcast Of The Week
Bitcoin For Professionals: Why Africa’s Bitcoin Adoption Is Years Ahead of the West
For millions facing weak currencies and unreliable banking systems, Bitcoin offers a fairer, open alternative.
Sabina, co-founder of Tando, is helping people in Kenya use Bitcoin in everyday life, from sending money to paying bills, through simple, widely adopted mobile tools.
Her story is a reminder that when the system fails to serve you, you build one that does.
Subscribe to Onramp MENA’s YouTube channel to catch new episodes of the Bitcoin For Professionals podcast!
Onramp MENA is an advisory and educational platform dedicated exclusively to Bitcoin.
If Onramp MENA’s offerings align with your needs, or those of someone you know, feel free to schedule a consultation with us here.